"Managing transport challenges when oil prices rise" is the title of a recent research report, published by the NZ Transport Agency. You'll find that some very bold statements are contained within the report that challenge the conventional thinking of many transport planners.
Here are a few examples:
- Travel and land use have not historically been effectively managed or priced.
- This has led to structural imbalances that have subsidised private vehicle trips.
- Current legislative requirements for public consultation may reduce the ability of government agencies to respond swiftly and effectively in the event that fuel prices rose unexpectedly.
- A paradigm shift is required away from “predict and provide” transport planning to manage and price” type measures.
The following summary is provided:
This research found that high oil prices are likely to be sustained over the next two decades. It suggests these risks are best managed by implementing a package of responses that seek to redress structural imbalances in transportation and land-use planning. Implementing the recommended responses is expected to result in medium to long term improvements in energy efficiency, while also delivering on-going economic benefits. These responses are thus considered to be "no regrets" measures that deliver "win-win" outcomes - regardless of the price of fuel. They are also expected to motivate more innovative market driven responses to transport needs than may be achieved through the current paradigm, which is characterised by underpriced vehicle travel and a focus on supply side capacity expansions of the road network. Ultimately the recommended responses are expected to manage total vehicle travel below current levels and thereby allow government agencies to reprioritise investment in road network maintenance and alternative transport modes.
The report's conclusions are:
- There is a serious and urgent risk that high oil prices will eventuate within the next five years. These prices appear likely to be sustained for the next two decades.
- Prices for petrol and diesel are expected to rise to approximately $2.80 and $2.50 per litre by 2014 - suppressing total vehicle travel below current levels until 2016.
- High fuel prices shift demand away from light passenger vehicles to commercial vehicles and alternative transport modes.
- The resilience of the transport system to high oil prices is currently being undermined by market distortions that cause an over-reliance on private vehicles.
- A paradigm shift is required away from "predict and provide" transport planning to "manage and price" type measures.
- Responses should focus initially on delivering reforms that allow for denser and more diverse land use while also directly and efficiently pricing vehicle travel.
- Efficient land use and pricing may be expected to generate additional demand for infrastructure solutions that provide safely for a diverse range of modes.
- Modelling indicates that these responses are able to contain total vehicle travel at or below current levels and increase demand for alternative transport modes.
- Containing growth in vehicle travel allows for increased investment in road network maintenance (particularly low friction road surfaces) and alternative transport modes.
- The recommended responses are "no regrets" measures which, once implemented, deliver a range of economic, social, environmental benefits.
The report is availale on the NZTA website.
I understand that one pending outcome from this report is that funding applications for transport projects are to assume that there won't be any underlying traffic growth until 2016 (which takes away the 'predict and provide' attitude).